KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Bernama) -- RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) has raised its total industry volume (TIV) forecast for this year to 790,000 units, up from its previous estimate of 740,000 units.
In its research note, the investment bank stated that despite the revision, the forecast still represents a slight one per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in TIV.
The Malaysian Automotive Association previously reported that last year's TIV stood at 799,731 units.
“We reiterate our view that the sector is due for a cyclical downturn in sales volume. However, Perodua may be an exception, given its affordability and value-for-money offerings,” said RHB IB.
The bank also expects a stronger third-quarter TIV, supported by a low base in the second quarter.
July's TIV grew by 11 per cent YoY, driven by Proton and Perodua, which posted y-o-y growth of 14 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively.
“However, weaker data from non-national marques could weigh on overall performance, as intensifying competition from new entrants, particularly Chinese automakers, impacts the market,” it said.
RHB IB noted that electric vehicles (EVs) remain less popular, mainly due to their high pricing, and that EV sales are unlikely to significantly impact TIV.
Year-to-date (YTD), national carmakers Proton and Perodua have accounted for 63 per cent of the local market share.
Meanwhile, major marques have seen declines in their order backlogs, with Perodua’s backlog dropping to 100,000 units from 128,000 at the end of December, and Toyota’s decreasing to 20,000 units from 28,000 over the same period.
The investment bank added that the backlog remained relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, likely due to lower total production volume during the quarter.
“Despite Perodua targeting sales of 330,000 units this year, its YTD sales volume growth of 17 per cent suggests the carmaker could achieve another record high in 2024.
“Therefore, we have revised our 2024 Perodua sales forecast to 345,000 units, up from 330,000,” it added.
-- BERNAMA=
